Thread: Why GTA IV Was the Beginning of the End

Why GTA IV Was the Beginning of the End
Wagner James Au, Wednesday, June 18, 2008 at 1:00 PM PT Comments (71)

I think it’s safe to say that the era of next-gen gaming as a driving force is over. Why? As of the week ending June 7th (the most recent tally available), just over 9 million copies of the highly touted Grand Theft Auto IV had been sold worldwide for the Xbox 360 and Sony PS3 combined, according to VGChartz.

That may seem impressive, until you start looking closer — which Microsoft, Sony, and the many publishers who develop for their respective consoles are surely doing now. For one thing, its predecessor, 2004’s GTA: San Andreas, sold 21.5 million copies. With GTA IV sales already plummeting, the franchise’s latest installment from Take-Two Interactive will be lucky to move 12-14 million copies total. What’s more, it cost a record $100 million to develop.

But it gets worse.


Despite being part of one of the most popular video game series of all time, the arrival of GTA IV failed to boost sales of new next-generation consoles. (PS3 and 360 are defined as “next-gen” for boasting the best and latest graphics features.) Meanwhile, sales of the non-next-gen, GTA IV-less Nintendo Wii were double that of PS3/360’s numbers combined. If Grand Theft Auto can’t move more machines, nothing can. Which not only suggests that the market for next-gen consoles has been exhausted, but that the audience for big budget, AAA next-gen titles has been tapped out, too.

Which is why I think GTA IV is next-gen’s siren song, and a sign of drastic changes to come. Expect to see games made for lower budgets, targeted at wider audiences (ones that aren’t fixated on high-end 3D graphics) and delivered over broadband with a micropayment program in place. Don’t expect a follow-up to the 360 or PS3 anytime soon, either. In other words, the days when so-called “next-gen” gaming reigned supreme are coming to end — instead, the industry’s future will be shaped by games like Rock Band.

I don't agree with this person. As long as money is made, big titles will continue to be made. I thought GTA4 sold more than 9 million copies. We'll see what the number really is when the next systems come to be since the title will be a greatest hit title and generate more sales on it as well.

It's not surprise that big titles such as GTA are costing more to make. So there is more risk in making them and making money. What this means, is game companies are going to less willing to take risks, and we may see fewer of these titles. If I were to guess, game companies may use the small titles sold through the online services to generate income to produce big titles, or we're going to see more in game advertising.

This guy's way off base. The numbers don't work. Even if GTA does only sell 12 million total copies and has an overly slim profit margin of $15 per copy on average, that's 180 million versus 100 million invested. In any other industry that's an incredibly smashing success (a profit of $80 million! I'd take it...)

While it's true that titles with that kind of development cost are few and far between, developers don't commit to that kind of budget unless it's pretty much a sure thing. Think GTA4, Halo 3, or on a lesser level GoW2, anything Final Fantasy, the MGS series, etc...

As far as driving console sales... the only thing driving console sales now, imho, is price. Those who want it pretty much have it. The rest will buy as the price comes down. We're in the middle of the cycle, or close to it. The whole "I have to have the console because of this particular game" thing is over. I don't see his observation as being groundshaking. The Wii is an anomaly. Meaningful in that it influences a broader segment of society than traditional gaming. But it won't totally change the industry toward making more cheap games with lame graphics.

I agree with you guys.

He says nothing about the economy we live in now compared to when San Andreas came out. We bought GTA:IV because gaming is our hobby and we don't mind spending money for the enjoyment it brings us.

Many of the people who purchased San Andreas 4 years ago were not thinking, "Ok I can buy GTA:SA or I can fill my tank with gas." Plus the PS2 already had a firm grasp on the gaming market. The consoles were already out there. Consumers did not need to spend $400 for a console plus $60 for the game. Compare that with $50 for San Andreas.

Seems like this person read a statistic and thought he could pass it off as prophecy of the future of gaming.

Price of consoles has always been a major factor of moving them. Think about the PS2. The main reason it did so well to start was it was a really cheap DVD player and people could outright see a significant difference over VHS. The launch titles for the most part stunk. It wasn't till the price came significantly down did it move units as a game console. But the PS2 wasn't a $500 or more. I think it was $300, or $250 at launch.

And another issue with the new consoles is if you want to enjoy the consoles full capabilities, assume the game has been coded to use them, you have to have a HDTV, and, at least, 5.1 home theater system. And I don't think that many households have them yet. HDTVs, my guess is around 30%, maybe 40%. And with Sony and Microsoft pushing the online gaming thing, one needs to think of the cost of getting broadband internet service, and even with the cheapest DSL service of $15 or $20, you're looking at an addition cost of $180 to $240, and not including $50 to $80 for XBL.

I thought it was funny nonetheless. Video game will always be around in some form. Right now, we're seeing a more console-centric time. I remember when it was PC-centric. We may see a shift back to PCs at some point. But I can't see game makers ditching the big titles. Too much money to be made. I think Nintendo Wii shows a simple system can make money will simple and very fun games, and it doesn't have to be the latest greatest technology. The Wii is console that's prime for an Atari2600 history were cheap and quick games are sent to public.

I think it's safe to say the game industry will change over time. We've seen it happen. Does it mean we'll see another game console or less of them.

But for right now, I believe the reason neither the 360 or PS3 have a bigger installation base if purely price. I think for them to hit those big numbers like the PS2, the price needs to be near or below $200. As much as I hate to say, I think the market will bear the price of $60 per new game.

Oh no, its the end of gaming! oh no its the end of TV! oh no its the end of the WORLD!

doomsayers are dumb.